Can Aguero Match Messi and Ronaldo?

Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini has begun to speak of his Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero as being in the same league as his compatriot Lionel Messi and the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo. Is there any substance to this bold claim?

Aguero netted all four goals in this week's clinical demolition of Tottenham Hotspur, inviting serious scrutiny of his strike-rate in a City shirt. All told he has notched up an incredible tally of one goal every 108.3 minutes - a Premier League record. This compares very favourably with that of his nearest challenger, Thierry Henry, who managed a goal every 121.8 minutes for Arsenal, as well as with Ruud van Nistelrooy (128.2), Robin van Persie (136) and fellow City striker Edin Dzeko (137).

What is noticeable is that every player in the minutes-per-goal top ten plied their trade with a top Premier League side. This would seem to make sense as it's the top sides which score the most goals. In other words the efficiency of the goalscorer will depend to a very large extent of that of the team around him. Put Aguero into the shirt of a struggling club and the tale may well be a different one. But then could not the same be said for his rivals?

The other telling statistic is the number of minutes each contender has actually played. Aguero has competed for a total of 6,608 minutes in the Premier League, compared to 21,313 for Henry, 12,178 for van Nistelrooy and 18,497 for van Persie. It will be interesting to see whether his superb strike-rate can be maintained when he has spent longer on the pitch.

It cannot be denied that Aguero is rapidly establishing himself amongst some esteemed company. Many believe he has the potential to be the best of them all. Time will tell.

Betfair Offering 4/1 for Man City to Beat Spurs (and Money Back if they Lose!)

Further to our recent article about the craze for offering wildly enhanced odds, Betfair have this weekend provided a perfect example with their special price of 4/1 for Manchester City to beat Tottenham Hotspur.

Plus, if City actually manage to lose the fixture, Betfair will refund your stake.

This price is not available on the standard website, but can be obtained by clicking here. Fill your boots, but remember to read the Terms and Conditions first.

Froch Says No to DeGale Match

WBA and IBF world super-middleweight boxing champion Carl Froch has ruled out a match with James DeGale, saying his fellow Briton is "not a big enough name".

Instead Froch has designs on meeting Julio Cesar Chavez Jnr. in Las Vegas.

At 37 years of age Froch is surely nearing the end of his fight career and he is looking to compete in the boxing capital of the world against the former WBC champion, who is the son of the legendary Julio Cesar Chavez. The move would mean Froch having to surrender his IBF belt as DeGale is the mandatory challenger.

"He has not beaten anyone to justify being in the ring with me," Froch commented. "He lost to George Groves. I flattened Groves and it would be even easier to flatten DeGale."

Enhanced Odds - How Do They Work?

The short answer is - very well. When a sportsbook offers you 5/1 for Premier League champions Manchester City to beat inferior opposition they know they are giving money away. So why do they do it?

The simple answer is that it is a catchpenny to get you to open an account with that particular online bookmaker. You will notice that the offer is only available to new customers and limited to a very small maximum stake. Sometimes there is a wagering requirement involved so that the stake has to be reinvested a set number of times before your funds can be withdrawn.

Nevertheless it is well worth taking. There is every chance you are going to win, indeed if you match the bet elsewhere to lock in a guaranteed profit it is a certainty. Whether you continue to play with that sportsbook subsequently is entirely a matter for you.

One of the most prolific providers of the enhanced bet is Paddy Power, which also as it happens is one of the most decent, fun and user-friendly books. If the prospect of enhanced odds interests you click here and take a look at what's on offer.

Ethics Investigator Seeks Culture Change at FIFA

FIFA's independent ethics investigator Michael Garcia has called for fundamental culture change at world football's governing body, calling for "greater transparency" in the way in which the organisation conducts itself.

"The investigation and adjudication process operates in most parts unseen and unheard," he commented, adding that "leadership that sends a message that the rules apply to everyone" was needed.

"That's a kind of system which might be appropriate for an intelligence agency but not for an ethics compliance process in an international sports institution that serves the public and is the subject of intense public scrutiny."

Horse Racing Tips and the Merits of Sports Betting Systems

Anybody who has seriously considered sports betting as a means of earning a living will have toyed with the idea of adopting a betting system.

A "system", in effect, is anything that entails taking a methodical approach to placing bets as opposed to the "leap in and hope" way of the more random, occasional bettor. This may involve limiting stakes to a certain percentage of one's bank, backing and laying or indeed a combination of strategies. At one time or another they have all been tried, with varying degrees of success.

At the extreme end of the scale there is the ill-conceived Martingale system, which works on the principle that as it is indisputable that you will always win eventually, all you need to do is to keep increasing your stake each time to incorporate all the losses previously incurred during the cycle. What happens in practice is that you win a small amount most of the time, then lose it all and a little bit more besides when you eventually hit a sequence of losses - as you inevitably will - that either leaves you with insufficient funds with which to place the enormous bet you will need to place to recover all your losing stakes, or requires you to place a wager of such a size that no book will accept it.

It always pays to remember that even when you have flipped twenty heads in a row, the chances of the next flip showing a tail are still only fifty-fifty!

Of course a carefully calculated approach to sports betting can be helpful. Some may say it is essential to long-term success that you are able to keep a cool head and to avoid the temptation to be reckless on the back of a hunch, an approach that can often does result in all one's previous hard work being negated.

RELIABLE INFORMATION

But the key to it all is to understand that whichever betting system you use needs to work in harmony with well-researched, reliable information from a trusted and capable source. When one bears in mind that the odds are already stacked against the bettor by virtue of the fact that the bookmaker retains a house edge and doesn't offer the "real" price, it is necessary to ensure that you have good data upon which to base your selections through your system of choice. Remember, no matter how clever or scientific your system may be it can never work unless at least some of the horse racing tips or other information that you act upon actually proves successful.

Thus the secret of success in sports betting, whichever system you choose, is to avail yourself of the services of a good tipster with a proven record of success.

Matched Betting and the Martingale Myth

There is a very dangerous myth doing the rounds that it is possible to overcome all risks and to cruise effortlessly to eventual riches by means of a system that is known as Martingale.

Martingale is not by any means a new concept, indeed it was rather popular in 18th century France. However in the Internet age it has taken on a whole new life, with countless sites offering the benefits of this apparently foolproof system, sometimes at a price and at other times just out of the apparent goodness of somebody's heart.

The theory is this. The punter places a wager on a market, say 1, at evens. The price doesn't have to be evens, it just helps us for the purposes of this example if it is.

The outcome must inevitably be one of two eventualities. Either the bet will win, giving the punter a profit of 1 to place in his bank. Or, alternatively, the bet will lose in which case he then makes another bet, this time of 2, on another market. If it wins he will have made a profit of 2 on the bet, or 1 in total when the first loss is factored in.

If this bet is unsuccessful then the same bettor will place 4 on another evens market. Again, if it is successful, he will be 1 up overall. If unsuccessful the next stake will be 8, and so on and so forth.

EUROPEAN ROULETTE

The Martingale system can be applied to almost any kind of wager. It can be used at the casino (most purveyors of this "foolproof" system, for some odd reason, seem possessed of the notion that it works particularly well on European Roulette), at the games table (Heads or Tails is an especially straightforward market for using such a system) or at the online sportsbook.

On the surface it would appear to make sense. If one flips a coin often enough, it has to show a Head sometime - doesn't it?

Technically of course the answer is yes. But the Martingale theory ignores two very important, and very fundamental, considerations.

The first is that most punters will have finite resources at their disposal. After five unsuccessful flips of the coin your next stake will already be 32, having already flittered away 31. If your losing streak continues for another five flips, your next unsuccessful bet will leave you 2047 out of pocket. And don't forget, even if the coin has shown a Tail on the last ten occasions, the chances of it showing a Head at the next time of asking are still only 50%!

Secondly, most casinos and sportsbooks will have a limit as to how much one is able to stake on any particular wager. Once that limit has been reached, one cannot continue to apply the Martingale theory and must therefore take the resultant loss upon the chin.

So what are the chances of a coin showing a Tail ten times in a row? The answer, in theory, is 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50%. In other words 0.0009765%, or approximately 1 in 1000. When it does happen you will have lost 1023 in one painful swoop. How many one pound wins will you need to recover this? Get the idea?

So far so bad. But when one then factors in the house edge, which ensures that your chances of winning a 50/50 bet are actually less than 50%, the Martingale system reveals itself to be an absolute disaster.

LITTLE AND OFTEN

To put it simply - you will win little and often, then you will lose big. And the longer you play, the more statistically assured is your demise.

There are many systems being offered out there, but for as long as there is a house edge none that are based on mathematical probability will ever work for you in the long run. That, if you like, is a mathematical certainty.

The only systems that work in the final analysis involve either exploiting over-generous prices at sportsbooks (through value betting or arbitrage) to reverse the house edge or using bonuses and free bets intelligently. The matched betting system using the free bet offered by most bookmakers coupled with laying at betting exchanges guarantees you a locked-in profit. All Martingale guarantees is eventual bankruptcy.

Roy Keane Speaks to Football Focus

Manchester United legend turned Republic of Ireland Assistant Manager Roy Keane has given a fascinating interview to Kevin Kilbane at Football Focus. In it he speaks of the "lies" which prompted him to write his autobiography with Roddy Doyle, and gives an interesting insight into his relationships - and his bust-ups - with Sir Alex Ferguson and Mick McCarthy.

To access the interview click here.

England's Victory Makes it Nine Points from Nine

England have won all nine points from their first three qualifying games for the European Soccer Championships in 2016, but some questions remain following a laboured performance in Eastern Europe against Estonia.

What are the prospects for a team which scrapes to a 1-0 win over the world's 81st-ranked footballing nation that played with ten men for nearly half the match?

How does a 19-year-old become so tired after playing for 45 minutes against what was little more than a pub team that he needs to be rested for the start of the next match?

And is Wayne Rooney, heading as he must surely be for the accolade of being England's all-time top scorer, the Real Deal?

One can look at the Rooney question either way. He was anonymous for most of the match, and squandered at least one open goal as he also did against San Marino. But, as one could equally point out, he was the only player on the pitch to put the ball in the net. What is more, 43 goals don't lie. In fact his goals per game ratio is fairly similar to that of Bobby Charlton, whose all-time record of 49 England goals he is chasing.

Of course it is considerably inferior to that of Jimmy Greaves or Gary Lineker. The latter scored five more goals in 19 fewer games. What is more, the strikers of old did not enjoy many opportunities to fill their boots against the likes of San Marino, Andorra and the Faroe Islands (and now Gibraltar).

All-time great or just the best of a mediocre bunch? You decide.

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