Who Goes to Europe?

One of the more interesting developments in Premier League football over the past few years has been the increased fluidity involving the (admittedly still relatively small) pack of teams chasing the glories of European competition.

Few would contest the notion that this year's title race has essentially narrowed into a stand off between last year's champions Manchester City and a resurgent Chelsea under the renewed guidance of The Special One, the enigmatic but quite brilliant Jose Mourinho.

Behind those two things are not quite so clear cut. Under Louis Van Gaal the once dominant Manchester United would seem to have reasserted their status as automatic contenders following last season's debacle, in which relegation had at times looked a more likely prospect than Champions League football, without really troubling the two front runners very much.

And yet with just sixteen matches left to play United are not even in third place. That honour goes to unfancied Southampton, who despite having lost the best part of their team after last season would appear to have gone from impressive under the talented Mauricio Pochettino to rampant under the tutelage of Dutch legend Ronald Koeman. Southampton are where they are on merit, and have begun to believe that Champions League football next year really is within their grasp.

So where does that leave perennial competitors Arsenal, who have represented English football in Europe's premier tournament for the last seventeen years without absence? The bottom line is that Arsenal need to invoke all their experience and undoubted ability to challenge either United or Southampton for one of the four Premier League placings. They did their cause no harm at all today, of course, by comprehensively demolishing champions Manchester City 2-0 on their own turf at the Etihad.

FIREPOWER

Although Southampton so dearly deserve their place in the sun, my gut feeling is that Arsenal will edge into third place as the season nears its end. That will leave United and Southampton battling it out for fourth place, and with the amount of firepower they have at their disposal United should just limp across the line in spite of their dodgy defence, leaving Southampton having to settle for a place in the Europa League (the good news being that on their current form that is a tournament they could quite feasibly win).

Below the top five lurk some of the usual, as well as some not so usual suspects. Tottenham would appear to have maintained their status as the best of the rest whilst Liverpool, who a few games back were floundering badly, seem to be on their way back. This year's surprise package up in the top half of the table is West Ham United, currently seventh in the Premier League and going great guns. Below them is the aforementioned Liverpool, and thereafter a big fat drop to ninth place and also-ran obscurity.

My prediction in the final analysis would be 1. Chelsea, 2. Manchester City, 3. Arsenal, 4. Manchester United, 5. Southampton, 6. Tottenham. The only road into Europe for anybody else will be via the F.A. Cup. Interesting times.

English Teams Await their Fate in Champions League Draw

England's remaining three football sides in the Champions League draw will learn tomorrow (Monday) who they will be playing in the last 16 of the tournament.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City all went forward to the knockout stages, although troubled Liverpool were despatched to the Europa League following a 1-1 with Basel last week. Everton, Tottenham and Celtic are also involved in the last 32 of Europe's second cup.

The draw will take place at 11.00am GMT in Switzerland. The other teams included in the draw are Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Monaco, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Porto, Juventus, Basel, Bayer Leverkusen, Paris St-Germain, Schalke and Shakhtar Donetsk.

When Will City Begin to be a Force in Europe?

I remain unconvinced by Manchester City as a European soccer superpower in spite of their 3-2 victory over Bayern Munich, probably the world's best club side, last night.

Let us remember that Bayern were already through to the knockout stages as the top team in their Champiions League group. Let us remember too that within twenty minutes of the game they ere down to 10 men. In spite of both these factors, it took two late goals from City to establish their supremacy.

It is difficult to credit that some sportsbooks were offering 13/5 on a City victory at their own ground. This is a team which has benefited from some £1 billion of investment. That such crazy prices were on offer is perhaps indicative of the lack of confidence that soccer pundits have in them on the European stage.

All this aside it would be foolhardy to write the Blues off as contenders for the Champions League title. Any side with the talent and the firepower that Manchester City have must surely be in with a shout.

But City really need to start proving themselves at this level, because their contribution to this tournament thus far has fallen woefully short of expectations.

Can Aguero Match Messi and Ronaldo?

Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini has begun to speak of his Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero as being in the same league as his compatriot Lionel Messi and the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo. Is there any substance to this bold claim?

Aguero netted all four goals in this week's clinical demolition of Tottenham Hotspur, inviting serious scrutiny of his strike-rate in a City shirt. All told he has notched up an incredible tally of one goal every 108.3 minutes - a Premier League record. This compares very favourably with that of his nearest challenger, Thierry Henry, who managed a goal every 121.8 minutes for Arsenal, as well as with Ruud van Nistelrooy (128.2), Robin van Persie (136) and fellow City striker Edin Dzeko (137).

What is noticeable is that every player in the minutes-per-goal top ten plied their trade with a top Premier League side. This would seem to make sense as it's the top sides which score the most goals. In other words the efficiency of the goalscorer will depend to a very large extent of that of the team around him. Put Aguero into the shirt of a struggling club and the tale may well be a different one. But then could not the same be said for his rivals?

The other telling statistic is the number of minutes each contender has actually played. Aguero has competed for a total of 6,608 minutes in the Premier League, compared to 21,313 for Henry, 12,178 for van Nistelrooy and 18,497 for van Persie. It will be interesting to see whether his superb strike-rate can be maintained when he has spent longer on the pitch.

It cannot be denied that Aguero is rapidly establishing himself amongst some esteemed company. Many believe he has the potential to be the best of them all. Time will tell.